Shuffle vs Rollbit Analysis
pure speculations by a noob
Hello everyone, haven't been as active as I'd like due to time constraints and crypto conference travels.
However, here's a competitive analysis on Shuffle and Rollbit. Both are online casinos. My thesis is that Shuffle can overtake Rollbit, so lets dive in to see why.
Most of the data for the analysis below is pure speculation unless stated otherwise, due to the fact that casino’s do not publicize most of their data due to sensitivity so take the numbers and data here w/ a grain of salt.
Rollbit
House Edge:
Rollbit’s house edge data was obtained from their blog, it does not cover all the games nor does it include sports and futures platform.
Rollbit Daily Revenue:
Below is a snapshot of Saturday’s (September 23rd) revenue data based on their dashboard which is public as users tend to gamble more on a weekend rather than on a weekday.
From the above, we can guesstimate the volume that Rollbit has and deduce that Rollbit has roughly $30M volume per day, but keep in mind that the revenue looks to be on the lower end of the spectrum due to market conditions.
Shuffle
Now, lets dig into Shuffle, just a reminder that everything discussed below is mostly speculation:
Estimated Volume:
Firstly, based on Rollbit’s daily wagering volume of $30M, and roughly $900M in a month, we take the assumption that Shuffle does 30% of the volume which is $300M/month and $10M/day, where 90% of volume originates from its regular casino and 10% from their sportsbook platform.
There are a few ways to incentivize users to port over from Rollbit that Shuffle can use:
Lowering house edge
Using an airdrop as an incentives to move over
Better tokenomics (maybe staking boost on earnings/multipliers etc.)
With the 3 assumptions above, we further assume Shuffle uses a lower house edge at 3%. Although this lowers their revenue generation it will also lead to user growth in the long run. Then we have the following data:
This might not look as impressive compared to Rollbit’s, but look what Hedgedhog7 mentioned.
Shuffle managed to get almost $20M in volume in 1 day alone, most likely due to the airdrop incentive. If we plug in the new daily volume, we get the below:
Shuffle FDV:
Now, we have to determine and compare Shuffle's starting FDV but there is no information on it for now. In order to speculate on the FDV, let's use Twitter’s most recent comparison, Unibot vs BananaGun.
We can see Banana’s starting FDV is about 12x lower than Unibot, so based on the above, we can speculate Shuffle to launch 3x lower than Rollbit to be conservative (pure speculation, Shuffle can launch at an even lower FDV).
If you then compare Rollbit vs Shuffle, Shuffle looks undervalued by 1.6x based on a 3x lower FDV compared to Rollbit.
However, there are a few important points to consider:
Rollbit has been operating since 2020/2021 whereas Shuffle has only been operating since Feb this year, showing incredible growth.
Shuffle has the power of incentives (airdrop) which can vampire attack Rollbit’s volume which if it happens, will make the R/FDV ratio more favourable towards Shuffle.
Shuffle tokenomics have not been released, but they can (and should have) analyzed what Rollbit did and adapt/integrate better tokenomics / utility / gametheory.
Scenarios:
Above is a table speculating different volume estimations based on bear/bull cases.
With the points above in mind, my theory is that Shuffle can vampire attack Rollbit with incentives and most likely better tokenomics (despite Rollbit having their buyback-and-burn program) as FDV is just a meme, it also depends on if they’re doing really good volume before they launch their token.
If the vampire attack is successful, volume on Rollbit decreases as users move to Shuffle to gamble thanks to airdrop incentives, revenue increases for Shuffle while volume decreases for Rollbit, THEN THE FLIPPENING WILL HAPPEN.
Link to the spreadsheet to play around with numbers here.
C4 managed to get a partnership referral with Shuffle.
https://shuffle.com?r=cjfromc4
YOU GET $500 MATCHED ON YOUR FIRST DEPOSIT (you need a 35x rollover though which is ezpz, read here for more info) then open a support ticket on their website and mention your referral is cjfromc4 and take the monies.
This would help me a ton and would appreciate it very much!
Pretty sure you’ve seen some people talk about how to “farm” the airdrop by depositing money and just selecting 98% winrate on Dice/Limbo to farm the volume, all I can say is that this won’t work as its a very easily detectable “farming method”. Think of something else hehe. Am pretty bullish on what/how they’re building it and can’t wait for more information to be shared.
Noah dropped that $SHFL will be airdropped across 3 snapshots (first one not taken yet) and it's probably going to be based on volume. Will try to estimate/calculate the potential value of the airdrop once more details are released, so stay tuned and hope you enjoyed reading some analysis on random numbers I plucked from thin air.